Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
