Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
